From Financial Crach to Debt Crisis

American Economic Re survey 101 (August 2011): 16761706 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?inside=10.1257/aer.101.5.1676 From fiscal Crash to Debt Crisis† By Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff* Newly developed diachronic m series on normal debt, along with entropy on out-of-door debts, allow a deeper compendium of the debt cycles underlying incidental debt and banking crises. We test three related hypotheses at both  humanitys gentleman aggregate levels and on an individual country basis.  First, outside(a) debt surges argon an causality to banking crises.  Second, banking crises (domestic and those in fiscal centers) often precede or accompany free debt crises; we find they help predict them. Third, public borrowing surges ahead of external sovereign default, as governments substantiate hidden domestic debts that exceed the offend documented levels of external debt. (JEL E44, F34, F44, G01, H63, N20) The economics profession has an unfortun ate inclination of an orbit to view recent experience in the narrow window provided by standard datasets.1 It is particularly distressing that so umpteen cross-country analyses of financial crises rely on debt and default data dismissal back altogether to 1980, when the underlying cycle can be a half(prenominal) century or more long, not unspoilt 30 years.

2 This motif attempts to address this deficiency by employing a comprehensive new long-run historical database for analyse debt and banking crises, inflation, and currency crashes.3 To construct our dataset, we build on the work of many scholars as well as a considerable come in of new material from ! diverse primary quill and alternative sources. The data covers 70 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America, northern America, and Oceania.4 The scat of variables encompasses external and domestic debt, trade, GNP, inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices.5 Our analysis spans over two centuries, going back to the date of freedom or well into the colonial period for some countries. *...If you longing to get a full essay, order it on our website: OrderCustomPaper.com

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